Maybe We Really Can Trust Weather Forecasts

By , August 22, 2018

One of the classic American truisms is that you can’t trust the weather report. We all learned at our parents’ knees that weather forecasts are unreliable, untrustworthy, comically inadequate.

Well, maybe in their day, but today one had best believe the forecast by default—in my opinion.

Take Tuesday, for instance.

The day’s weather forecast predicted that rain would start after 1 p.m.

Nevertheless, the morning dawned clear and calm. We saw a glorious sunrise (with not a touch of red—you know, “red sky at morning sailors/shepherds take warning”—at least that we saw).

Sunrise over Lynn Canal

Aly took this photo from her cottage window Tuesday morning (Photo: Sarah A. Zeiger).

After some uncertainty, we decided to behave as if the forecast would prove true.

Aly had Tuesday off, but Alaska’s Primary Election occurred that same day. We conferred, and decided that she and I would enjoy the sunshine on the homestead until the rain started in the afternoon, then hike in to vote.

I had bucked up some of the trees that drifted from the Kahtzehin across Lynn Canal to wash up on our beach (more on this, hopefully, in a future post). I’d left the rounds on the beach to dry in the sun. I intended to get it all under cover before the rain started.

I worked hard and fast, carrying wood up to the cabin, bucking it further, chopping it as need, and stacking it. The whole time, the sun shone brightly, with not a breath of breeze.

I questioned my industry. I wandered over to the cottage veranda, where Aly sat sunbathing and knitting. We discussed whether or not we would get rain, beginning to doubt the forecast. We decided to eat lunch then head to town, no matter the weather.

We heated lunch in the sun oven and ate on the veranda. As we ate our last bites, the wind rose and clouds dimmed the sun. Shortly after that, we felt sprinkles.

We left the homestead in the rain. As we climbed the ridge, I glanced at my watch. It read 1:20 p.m. At about that same time, Michelle stood on the tour ship dock in town, watching the rain start. The forecast had been word perfectly correct.

This isn’t always the case, but more often than not, the forecast holds true in our area. Likely, it does in yours, too. I’m thinking of refraining from repeating the tired old jokes about the weather, and the unreliability of the forecast.

rainy weather

Later the same day (Photo: Mark A. Zeiger).

Leave a Reply

Panorama Theme by Themocracy